Japan is projected to slip from fourth to sixth place in the global economic rankings by 2027, as both India and the United Kingdom are expected to surpass it in terms of nominal gross domestic product (GDP), according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This shift underscores the changing dynamics among the world’s largest economies.
The IMF estimates that Japan’s nominal GDP will reach $4.34 trillion in 2026 and $4.47 trillion in 2027. However, the country’s economic standing is facing challenges due to a weak yen against the US dollar and lackluster economic growth. In contrast, India’s GDP is forecasted to grow significantly, reaching $4.52 trillion in 2027, moving it from sixth to fourth place globally. Similarly, the UK’s GDP is expected to hit approximately $4.49 trillion by the same year, also overtaking Japan.
The differing growth trajectories of these economies are noteworthy. The IMF predicts Japan’s real GDP will expand by just 0.7% in both 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, India is expected to see robust growth, with a 7% increase on a fiscal-year basis in both years, driven by strong domestic demand and a vibrant services sector. The UK’s economy is predicted to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, according to the same estimates.
Japan, which was once the world’s second-largest economy, has experienced a gradual decline in its global ranking. It was overtaken by China in 2010 and fell behind Germany in 2023, dropping to fourth place. The latest IMF projections highlight India’s rising economic influence and indicate a shift in the balance of economic power among major global players.